Fig. 4: Meteorological storm severity index (METSSI) in the current and future climate.
From: Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
Bar chart (a) showing the METSSI for ERA5 (1979–2018), the CMIP6 historical simulations, and the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for Europe as a whole and the three subregions (see Methods). The full bars for the future simulations indicate the METSSI when the historical 98th percentile of wind speed is used as the threshold (no-adaptation case). The darker bars show the case when the 98th percentile threshold is taken from the corresponding scenario (adaptation case). Error bars show the standard error of the mean for the CMIP6 models. b Map of the METSSI from ERA5. c Maps of the difference between the METSSI from the CMIP6 historical simulations and ERA5. Stippling indicates robustness between models (where at least seven of the eight models agree on the sign of bias). d The multi-model mean change between the future in the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the historical simulations, and (e) the same as (d) but for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. f, g The component of change associated with adaptation (i.e., using the future 98th percentile threshold). Values are non-dimensional, scaled by 10−2.
