Fig. 2: Model-based storylines of the 2021 Pacific Northwest (PNW) heatwave.
From: Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting
a 5-day running mean of daily maximum temperature (Tx5day) anomaly during (black solid) 2021 PNW heatwave (ERA5), as well as simulated (dashed colors) unperturbed reference events, and (solid colors) maximum boosted event anomaly, respectively. Anomalies are expressed relative to the climatological mean seasonal cycle. The seasonal cycle (black dashed) and the interannual variability of Tx5day (+/− 2 standard deviations shown as light gray range, and +4 standard deviations shown as dotted line) are calculated across the period 1981–2010 in 10 historical CESM2 simulations. b Maximum Tx5day residual anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle for the five largest boosted members (solid lines) and (dashed line) the corresponding unperturbed reference event. c Same as (b) but Tx5day for standardized anomalies.
