Fig. 6: Recent Eastern Mediterranean rainfall d-excess, Mediterranean Oscillation Index and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation index trends.

A Accumulated rainfall d-excess values calculated over three-year intervals for northern rainfall collection sites (yellow disks and line), central rainfall collection sites (red squares and line), and Soreq (black diamonds and line). Superimposed on the plot is the North Atlantic cluster frequency ratio derived from rainfall at Soreq (blue dashed line). B The December to February (DJF) annual mean (grey line) and three-year mean (red and orange lines) of the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI₂). A positive MOI₂ was shown to correlate with a southward shift of the CL tracks reaching Israel^21,24. C Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) indices based on mean sea surface temperature (SST) differences^3,5. Negative (positive) trends infer a weakening (strengthening) AMOC. SST_SG-GM (blue line): defined as the difference between the mean SST of the subpolar gyre region (SG) and the whole globe. SST_SG-GM-AMO (green line): based on the same spatial regions as SST_SG-GM but with the contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) removed. SST_SG-NH (purple line): defined as the difference between the mean SST of SG and the Northern Hemisphere. SST_DIPOLE (yellow line): defined as the difference between South-Atlantic and North-Atlantic SST’s. These indices correlate well with actual AMOC strength in simulations with freshwater hosing and gradual CO₂ increase models.