Fig. 4: 2010–2100 global pathways for select variables as modelled by the C1 scenarios divided into three clusters based on their 2030, 2050, 2075, and 2100 gas supply values.

The median (dark lines) pathway and interquartile range (shadings) of each cluster are plotted at 5-year intervals. The variables shown in each panel are as follows: a Primary energy from gas; b, c Primary energy from gas without and with coupling to carbon capture and storage (CCS); d Total primary energy supply; e–h Primary energy from coal, oil, non-biomass renewables, and nuclear; i–k CCS coupled to fossil fuel use, bioenergy, and direct air capture; l Carbon removal and sequestration by the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use sector; m Methane emissions from the energy sector; n Carbon Price; o–r Capacity additions to electricity generation from gas with CCS, solar, wind, and battery storage; s–t Electricity generation from gas without and with CCS; u–w Gas demand (from fossil- and non-fossil sources) for industry, transportation, and buildings; x Gas demand for hydrogen production; y–ae Capital costs (CC) and operation and maintenance costs (OMC) for gas with CCS, concentrated solar power, and offshore wind for electricity generation. (Notes: Variable units are shown inset; “nx” refers to the number of scenarios within each cluster that outputs a given variable, where x denotes the first letter of the cluster name).