Fig. 1: Comparison of fitted model to SEER and NHANES data.

The model predictions for age-stratified MGUS prevalence and MM incidence are compared against the continuous NHANES 1999–2004 MGUS data (top row) and SEER 2010 MM incidence data (bottom row) for non-Hispanic white men (first column), non-Hispanic white women (second column), non-Hispanic Black men (third column), and non-Hispanic Black women (fourth column). Black points are the data used to fit the model, and the black vertical segments are the 95% confidence intervals on the data. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each sub-population using the following samples sizes: n = 1735 non-Hispanic white men, n = 1,703 non-Hispanic white women, n = 454 non-Hispanic Black men, and n = 463 non-Hispanic Black women. The solid line is median posterior model prediction, the darker shaded area is the 50% posterior prediction interval (PPI), and the lighter shaded area is the 95% PPI.