Fig. 2: Contributions of age, gender, and race/ethnicity to the development of MGUS and progression to MM.

a The isolated effects of age (black), age and female gender (red), and age and non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity (blue) are shown for the rate of MGUS development (yr⁻¹). b The posterior estimate of the MGUS multiplier is shown for female gender (red) and non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity (blue). c The isolated effect of age (black), age and female gender (red), and age and non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity (blue) are shown for the rate of MM progression (yr⁻¹). d The posterior estimate of the MM multiplier is shown for female gender (red) and non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity (blue). In (a) and (c), the line is the median estimate, and the shaded region is the 95% credible interval. In (b) and d), the point is the median estimate, and the vertical line segment is the 95% credible interval. Each 95% credible interval is calculated from the n = 50,010 posterior samples. The horizontal dotted line is the reference multiplier of one. Values above the reference multiplier suggest that the covariate increases the rate of development/progression, whereas values below the reference multiplier suggest that the covariate decreases the rate of development/progression.