Fig. 2: Observed economic production loss from ENSO.
From: Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change
a Cumulative effect of three major extreme El Niño events in 1982/83 (yellow), 1997/98 (red) and 2015/16 (purple) on the global total GDP, accumulating from year 0 to year 3 after the event peaking in D(0)JF(1). Shadings indicate the 95% confidence level for each event based on a Bootstrap method (see ‘Statistical significance test’ in Methods). b Same as a, but for three major extreme La Niña events in 1988/89 (green), 1998/99 (sky blue) and 2010/11 (blue). c Timeseries of global GDP percentage change from ENSO (black line) and D(0)JF(1) Niño3.4 SST anomaly (normalized, bars). Change in GDP growth rate in each year is calculated as the sum of contemporaneous effect of ENSO event in year 0 and growth effects from year −1 to year −3. Grey shading shows the 95% confidence interval based on a Bootstrap method (see ‘Statistical significance test’ in Methods). Extreme El Niño (Niño3.4 > 1.5 s.d.) and La Niña (Niño3.4 < −1.25 s.d.) events are marked as red and blue bars, respectively.
