Table 3 Statistical analysis of individual MPXV/VACV antigens in detecting Smallpox- or MPXV-specific antibody responses
Virus | Protein | Area under the ROC curve (both) | Dunnett’s multiple comparisons test (versus negative samples) | ROC analysis (versus negative) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Smallpox vaccine | Mpox convalescent | Both | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total area | Std. error | 95% confidence interval | P value | PD1 D24 | PD2 D14 | PD2 D43 | PD2 D63 | MPX | Cutoff | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | LR | Cutoff | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | LR | Cutoff | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | LR | ||||||
≥2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MPXV | A5 | 0.7064 | 0.04359 | 0.6210 to 0.7919 | <0.0001 | 0.998 | 0.2562 | 0.9744 | 0.9985 | <0.0001 | >0.3038 | 8.333 | 98.41 | 5.25 | >0.1903 | 34.78 | 95.24 | 7.304 | >0.1903 | 24.39 | 95.24 | 5.122 | ||||
A14 | 0.6639 | 0.04553 | 0.5746 to 0.7531 | 0.0007 | 0.995 | 0.9392 | 0.4461 | 0.9814 | 0.0041 | >0.2849 | 8.333 | 98.41 | 5.25 | >0.1828 | 23.91 | 95.24 | 5.022 | >0.2661 | 9.756 | 98.41 | 6.146 | |||||
A26 | 0.5494 | 0.04802 | 0.4552 to 0.6435 | 0.3091 | 0.9283 | 0.9987 | 0.9977 | 0.9918 | 0.0413 | <0.1448 | 100 | 4.762 | 1.05 | >0.1233 | 17.39 | 95.24 | 3.652 | >0.1233 | 10.98 | 95.24 | 2.305 | |||||
A27 | 0.9909 | 0.005213 | 0.9807 to 1.000 | <0.0001 | 0.0394 | 0.9989 | 0.994 | 0.9981 | <0.0001 | >0.1701 | 11.11 | 98.48 | 7.306 | >0.1838 | 91.3 | 98.86 | 80.04 | >0.1383 | 58.54 | 96.58 | 17.11 | |||||
A29 | 0.7243 | 0.0414 | 0.6431 to 0.8054 | <0.0001 | 0.9998 | 0.0072 | 0.9999 | >0.9999 | <0.0001 | >0.2443 | 8.333 | 98.41 | 5.25 | >0.1344 | 71.74 | 93.65 | 11.3 | >0.1475 | 42.68 | 95.24 | 8.963 | |||||
A33 | 0.6155 | 0.04695 | 0.5235 to 0.7075 | 0.0173 | 0.9743 | 0.677 | 0.4456 | 0.0833 | 0.0037 | >0.1127 | 8.333 | 96.83 | 2.625 | >0.1135 | 23.91 | 96.83 | 7.533 | >0.1266 | 12.2 | 98.41 | 7.683 | |||||
A35 | 0.8878 | 0.02824 | 0.8325 to 0.9432 | <0.0001 | 0.9996 | <0.0001 | 0.1738 | 0.9561 | <0.0001 | >0.2443 | 61.11 | 93.65 | 9.625 | >0.2423 | 93.48 | 93.65 | 14.72 | >0.2423 | 79.27 | 93.65 | 12.48 | |||||
A36 | 0.5505 | 0.04877 | 0.4549 to 0.6461 | 0.2978 | >0.9999 | 0.5128 | 0.7373 | 0.9058 | 0.5869 | >0.1365 | 50 | 76.19 | 2.1 | <0.3010 | 97.83 | 15.87 | 1.163 | >0.1055 | 46.34 | 71.43 | 1.622 | |||||
A44 | 0.567 | 0.04769 | 0.4735 to 0.6605 | 0.1676 | 0.6103 | 0.6583 | >0.9999 | 0.9997 | 0.13 | <0.1384 | 94.44 | 9.524 | 1.044 | >0.1254 | 28.26 | 90.48 | 2.967 | >0.1232 | 19.51 | 90.48 | 2.049 | |||||
B2 | 0.9743 | 0.0121 | 0.9505 to 0.9980 | <0.0001 | 0.4434 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.0029 | <0.0001 | >0.1827 | 91.67 | 87.3 | 7.219 | >0.2980 | 93.48 | 93.65 | 14.72 | >0.3437 | 89.02 | 95.24 | 18.7 | |||||
B5 | 0.651 | 0.04596 | 0.5609 to 0.7411 | 0.0019 | 0.9944 | 0.0023 | 0.9386 | 0.9969 | 0.7119 | >0.1165 | 75 | 58.73 | 1.817 | >0.1610 | 56.52 | 69.84 | 1.874 | >0.1275 | 64.63 | 61.9 | 1.697 | |||||
B6 | 0.9383 | 0.02286 | 0.8934 to 0.9831 | <0.0001 | 0.9997 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.0078 | <0.0001 | >0.1830 | 77.78 | 95.24 | 16.33 | >0.1932 | 89.13 | 95.24 | 18.72 | >0.1830 | 84.15 | 95.24 | 17.67 | |||||
C15 | 0.5407 | 0.04873 | 0.4452 to 0.6362 | 0.4045 | 0.9955 | 0.9997 | 0.9222 | 0.2299 | 0.9961 | <0.1354 | 97.22 | 11.11 | 1.094 | <0.1382 | 95.45 | 11.11 | 1.074 | <0.1382 | 96.25 | 11.11 | 1.083 | |||||
C18* | 0.6045 | 0.04828 | 0.5098 to 0.6991 | 0.0323 | 0.9999 | 0.9999 | >0.9999 | 0.9612 | 0.2184 | >0.3874 | 88.89 | 31.75 | 1.302 | >0.3943 | 88.64 | 31.75 | 1.299 | >0.3874 | 88.75 | 31.75 | 1.3 | |||||
C19 | 0.5853 | 0.04734 | 0.4925 to 0.6781 | 0.0789 | 0.8182 | 0.9722 | 0.8888 | 0.0017 | 0.3028 | >0.1193 | 2.778 | 98.41 | 1.75 | >0.1193 | 6.522 | 98.41 | 4.109 | >0.1193 | 4.878 | 98.41 | 3.073 | |||||
D13 | 0.6453 | 0.04581 | 0.5555 to 0.7351 | 0.0028 | 0.9998 | 0.9982 | 0.5232 | 0.9976 | 0.0006 | >0.1205 | 13.89 | 92.06 | 1.75 | >0.1163 | 34.78 | 92.06 | 4.383 | >0.1163 | 25.61 | 92.06 | 3.227 | |||||
D14 | 0.5681 | 0.04849 | 0.4731 to 0.6632 | 0.1603 | 0.9997 | 0.9999 | 0.9999 | 0.9997 | 0.4863 | >0.1295 | 0 | 98.41 | 0 | >0.1035 | 8.696 | 96.83 | 2.739 | >0.1035 | 4.878 | 96.83 | 1.537 | |||||
E8 | 0.9123 | 0.02532 | 0.8627 to 0.9619 | <0.0001 | 0.9999 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.0118 | <0.0001 | >0.1406 | 72.22 | 98.41 | 45.5 | >0.1357 | 80.43 | 98.41 | 50.67 | >0.1357 | 76.83 | 98.41 | 48.4 | |||||
F3 | 0.6087 | 0.0476 | 0.5154 to 0.7020 | 0.0259 | >0.9999 | 0.6754 | 0.9713 | 0.968 | 0.0003 | >0.1067 | 5.556 | 98.41 | 3.5 | >0.1071 | 22.73 | 98.41 | 14.32 | >0.1067 | 15 | 98.41 | 9.45 | |||||
H3 | 0.6998 | 0.04355 | 0.6144 to 0.7851 | <0.0001 | 0.9983 | 0.3433 | 0.1102 | 0.8603 | 0.0185 | >0.1125 | 30.56 | 88.89 | 2.75 | >0.1349 | 60.87 | 92.06 | 7.67 | >0.1125 | 48.78 | 88.89 | 4.39 | |||||
I1 | 0.6066 | 0.0514 | 0.5059 to 0.7074 | 0.0395 | 0.4004 | 0.302 | 0.4065 | 0.4221 | 0.9858 | <0.1253 | 100 | 1.961 | 1.02 | <0.1099 | 100 | 3.922 | 1.041 | <0.1099 | 100 | 3.922 | 1.041 | |||||
L1 | 0.5136 | 0.04843 | 0.4187 to 0.6086 | 0.7786 | 0.9364 | >0.9999 | 0.1092 | 0.9347 | 0.9707 | <0.1615 | 97.22 | 1.587 | 0.9879 | >0.1052 | 6.522 | 95.24 | 1.37 | >0.1388 | 6.098 | 98.41 | 3.841 | |||||
L4 | 0.5124 | 0.04802 | 0.4183 to 0.6065 | 0.7985 | 0.0015 | 0.6977 | 0.9759 | 0.9874 | 0.5095 | >0.1263 | 13.89 | 98.41 | 8.75 | <0.2919 | 97.83 | 0 | 0.9783 | >0.1053 | 15.85 | 96.83 | 4.994 | |||||
M1 | 0.8097 | 0.05218 | 0.7074 to 0.9120 | <0.0001 | 0.9997 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.1207 | >0.1164 | 63.89 | 98.01 | 32.07 | >0.1154 | 11.11 | 98.01 | 5.578 | >0.1154 | 34.57 | 98.01 | 17.35 | |||||
VACV | A27 | 0.7754 | 0.03866 | 0.6996 to 0.8511 | <0.0001 | 0.9998 | 0.4736 | 0.6861 | 0.9869 | <0.0001 | >0.1352 | 38.89 | 72.58 | 1.418 | >0.3706 | 80.43 | 90.32 | 8.312 | >0.3706 | 53.66 | 90.32 | 5.545 | ||||
A33 | 0.9185 | 0.0252 | 0.8691 to 0.9679 | <0.0001 | 0.9998 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.0449 | <0.0001 | >0.2106 | 75 | 94 | 12.5 | >0.1387 | 84.78 | 94 | 14.13 | >0.1387 | 80.49 | 94 | 13.41 | |||||
B5 | 0.9408 | 0.02086 | 0.8999 to 0.9817 | <0.0001 | 0.983 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | >0.1657 | 86.11 | 92.06 | 10.85 | >0.1138 | 86.96 | 90.48 | 9.13 | >0.1138 | 87.8 | 90.48 | 9.22 | |||||
Pooled antigen ELISA | 0.9834 | 0.01037 | 0.9630 to 1.000 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | >0.1926 | 97.22 | 98.22 | 54.77 | >0.2350 | 95.65 | 98.22 | 53.88 | >0.1926 | 96.34 | 98.22 | 54.27 | |||||