Fig. 4: Relationship between the warming-induced changes in the tropical convection and the global frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis.
From: Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation
The evaluated months correspond to the peak TC seasons in (a, b) the northern hemisphere (August-October) and (c, d) the southern hemisphere (January–March). a, c Equatorial convection (0-7.5°°; -\(\omega\) at 500 hPa) and b, d off-equatorial convection (8–20°) are evaluated for the hemisphere where the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and most TCs reside. The displayed changes are defined as the difference between the 4-K simulation and the ensemble mean of the historical simulations. Individual dots show ensemble members that are forced by six oceanic warming patterns (CC, GF, HA, MI, MP, and MR; see Methods). The regression of ensemble members is shown with black dashed lines. The correlation coefficients (r) are shown in the upper right of corresponding subplots and are all above the 95% confidence level. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
