Fig. 2: Viral kinetics of first vs. second infections.

A, B Mean posterior viral trajectory (solid lines) with 95% credible interval (shaded region) for well-documented first infections (A) and second infections (B) in the 71 individuals with two well-documented infections. C, D Mean posterior viral trajectory (solid lines) with 95% credible interval (shaded region) for all well-documented first infections (n = 1796, C) and second infections (n = 193, D) in the dataset. In all panels, gray points depict the measured viral concentration for a single test. For each person, the points were shifted horizontally so that the individual’s mean posterior peak viral concentration sits at day 0. Black points and whiskers (A, C) depict the mean and 95% credible interval for the proliferation time, peak viral concentration, and clearance time, from left to right, for first infections. These values are repeated in gray on the lower plots (B, D) to facilitate comparison with the viral kinetics of second infections.