Fig. 3: Upper-level circulation associated with Pakistan summer rainfall. | Nature Communications

Fig. 3: Upper-level circulation associated with Pakistan summer rainfall.

From: Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022

Fig. 3: Upper-level circulation associated with Pakistan summer rainfall.The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

a, b Maps of 250 hPa wind anomalies in summer 2022 for ERA5 (a) and DP3 ensemble mean (b) with zonal winds (shading) and wind vectors (arrows) and Pakistan outlined in magenta. c As (a, b) but for an estimate of the impact of La Niña conditions from perturbation experiments (as discussed in the text). d, e Historical (1979–2022) correlation between Pakistan summer rainfall timeseries and the field of 250 hPa circulation in ERA5 (d) and the DP3 ensemble mean (e). f Gridpoint correlation skill for DP3 ensemble mean in predicting ERA5 observed 250 hPa zonal winds, stippling shows correlations significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level according to a two-sided Student’s t-test. Magenta boxes on all panels show the boxes used to define the subtropical jet meridional shift index (STJshift, see “Methods”).

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