Fig. 1: Timeline of the first six COVID-19 waves in Kenya, the Kilifi HDSS re-enumeration rounds and excess mortality analysis windows.

The dotted black horizontal line shows the period when HDSS fieldwork was suspended during round 48. The orange data series is the daily number of new cases of test-positive COVID-19 cases reported in Kenya (scale on left-hand y-axis) [Data source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html]. The predominant variant behind each wave is denoted at the base of each wave. The green line represents the effective reproductive number (scale on the right-hand y-axis) from a secondary source^16,17. The dates of the two anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody serosurveys in Kilifi HDSS are shown as grey bars^12,13. The exact dates of the re-enumeration rounds, defined waves and analysis windows are listed in Table S8.