Fig. 1: Effective population size (N_e) dynamics of 139 extant megafauna species.

a Each step line represents changes in N_e with respect to time for a single megafauna species, coloured by a gradient based on average adult mass. The dashed line represents the fit of the piecewise linear model, as determined by breakpoint analysis. The grey-shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval of the linear model prediction. The blue rectangle represents the timespan of realm-specific breakpoints (Supplementary Fig. 2). Both axes are log₁₀-transformed. Credit information for photographs of Antilocapra americana, Elephas maximus, Ursus arctos, Macropus giganteus and Giraffa tippelskirschi are available in Supplementary Table 2. All photographs are under CC-BY copyright (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) and adapted for the purpose of the figure. b Relationship between species’ adult mass and the rate of population size change (slope). The x-axis is log₁₀-transformed. Points are median slope values with 95% HPDI ranges indicated by bars (each distribution is derived using n = 1000 posterior samples). c Distribution of species’ decline severity. Source Data for this figure are in Source Data 1–4.