Fig. 3: Spatial fields and distributions of trends of the restoring rate λ for sea-surface temperatures.

a Linear trends of restoring rate λ time series computed from the ensemble mean in the HadCRUT5 (a–h) and ERSSTv5 (i–p) datasets. b. Mean of the linear trends computed individually from each λ time series of the 200 ensemble members. c–h Distributions of 200 trends for locations marked with corresponding letters in (b), with a vertical black dashed line showing the ensemble mean, and light solid grey lines at 0. The green vertical hatches in (a) indicate the regions where μ − 2σ > 0 for the Gaussian fitted to the ensemble distribution, i.e. where ~95% of the uncertainty ensemble trends are positive. i-p. same as a-h for the 1000 ensemble members of the ERSSTv5 dataset. Note that the shaded regions in a and i do not represent regions of statistically significant trends, but rather the regions that are increasing in most ensemble members.