Fig. 4: Detection and attribution analysis.
From: Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years
a Scaling factors for simulated ensemble (PET) versus speleothem Mg/Ca in natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG + NAT), natural forcings only (NAT) and anthropogenic greenhouse gas only (GHG), experiments from DAMIP/CMIP6 earth system models. Lower and upper box boundaries determine the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively, while the lower and upper whisker boundaries determine the 5th and 95th percentiles. b Five-year running mean simulated PET time series from DAMIP/CMIP6 ensemble mean (solid lines) for natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG + NAT), natural forcings only (NAT) and anthropogenic greenhouse-gas only (GHG) experiments. The 5–95% range of the model spread is presented as shaded areas; c, d present similar tests as shown in (a, b), respectively, but comparing speleothem δ18O record with simulated hydrologic balance P-PET calculated from DAMIP/CMIP6 experiments. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
