Fig. 5: Contributions of climate change and population change to the changes in cold- and heat-related mortality at different levels of global warming.

A change in cold-related excess mortality fraction (%); B change in heat-related excess mortality fraction (%). Country/area-level changes by climate change and population aging are shown at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming using a 20-year window compared with the historical period 1995–2014 under SSP5-8.5. The future periods in which the 20-year running mean of global mean temperature first reaches the 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of warming above pre-industrial level (1850–1900) are 2018–2037, 2032–2051, and 2055–2074, respectively under SSP5-8.5. The impact of population aging was estimated by subtracting the future changes in temperature-related impacts in the constant population scenario (“climate-only”) from the changes in temperature-related impacts under the SSP5 mortality projection in the “climate-population” scenario. Note the different scales in the x-axis used for heat and cold.