Table 1 Changes in temperature-related excess mortality fractions (%) at different levels of global warming vs. historical period under the climate-population and climate-only scenarios

Climate-only scenario

1.5 °C warming

−0.60 (−0.97 −0.29)

0.38 (0.02, 0.85)

−0.22 (−0.65, 0.12)

2 °C warming

−1.03 (−1.56, −0.59)

0.77 (−0.01, 1.69)

−0.25 (−1.10, 0.50)

3 °C warming

−1.75 (−2.65, −1.05)

1.83 (−0.47, 4.46)

0.08 (−2.35, 2.31)

Climate-population scenario

1.5 °C warming

0.08 (−0.22, 0.39)

0.46 (0.03, 1.00)

0.54 (0.06, 0.90)

2 °C warming

0.43 (0.01, 0.83)

1.04 (−0.04, 2.18)

1.48 (0.33, 2.38)

3 °C warming

0.17 (−0.70, 0.76)

2.50 (−1.25, 5.94)

2.67 (−1.28, 5.62)

Climate-only scenario

1.5 °C warming

−0.62 (−1.10, −0.32)

0.39 (0.02, 0.94)

−0.23 (−0.69, 0.13)

2 °C warming

−1.02 (−1.65, −0.60)

0.77 (−0.03, 1.82)

−0.25 (−1.12, 0.53)

3 °C warming

−1.74 (−2.62, −1.04)

1.81 (−0.54, 4.44)

0.07 (−2.38, 2.31)

Climate-population scenario

1.5 °C warming

0.67 (0.24, 0.99)

0.53 (0.04, 1.17)

1.20 (0.64, 1.67)

2 °C warming

1.05 (0.47, 1.50)

1.11 (−0.02, 2.39)

2.16 (0.92, 3.20)

3 °C warming

0.33 (−0.45, 0.85)

2.56 (−1.32, 6.09)

2.89 (−1.18, 6.02)