Table 1 Probability of at least one event occurring in the next 50 years from the 93 fault segments
ID | Fault name | N | MA forecast prob (%) | BM | BM forecast prob (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alaska PWS Copper | 9 | 0.001(~0,0.006) | W | 0.001(~0,0.006) |
2 | Alpine Hokuri Ck South Westland | 25 | 26.898(22.22,32.492) | W | 26.898(22.22,32.492) |
3 | Awatere East | 10 | 2.806(2.382,3.254) | W | 2.806(2.382,3.254) |
4 | Bree | 6 | 0.042(0.008,0.121) | W | 0.042(0.008,0.121) |
5 | Cadell | 9 | 0.038(0.034,0.043) | L | 0.038(0.034,0.043) |
6 | Cascadia | 19 | 9.751(7.763,11.329) | W | 9.751(7.763,11.329) |
7 | Cascadia Nth | 10 | 6.884(5.369,7.84) | W | 6.884(5.369,7.84) |
8 | Cascadia Sth | 19 | 9.676(8.502,10.873) | G | 9.676(8.502,10.873) |
9 | Chile Margin | 35 | 30.379(29.116,31.673) | W | 30.379(29.116,31.673) |
10 | Cloudy Fault | 6 | 1.618(1.372,1.893) | W | 1.618(1.372,1.893) |
11 | Daqingshan Piedmont Hohhot | 7 | 6.136(5.316,6.933) | G | 6.142(5.423,6.923) |
12 | Dead Sea Beteiha | 11 | 20.336(18.506,22.139) | P | 20.424(18.841,22.101) |
13 | Dead Sea Jordan | 12 | 4.35(3.941,4.798) | W | 4.336(3.932,4.777) |
14 | Dead Sea Qatar | 10 | 9.999(8.886,11.035) | P | 10.095(9.214,11.035) |
15 | Dead Sea Taybeh | 11 | 6.91(6.234,7.653) | L | 6.91(6.234,7.653) |
16 | Dead Sea Yammouneh | 12 | 5.61(4.583,6.942) | W | 5.61(4.583,6.942) |
17 | Dunstan | 6 | 0.567 (0.465, 0.685) | L | 0.567 (0.465, 0.685) |
18 | East Kunlun Kusaihu | 10 | ~0(~0,~0) | L | ~0(~0,~0) |
19 | East Kunlun Xidatan | 6 | 3.286(2.866,3.758) | L | 3.286(2.866,3.758) |
20 | Elashan | 5 | 4.116(3.281,5.041) | L | 4.108(3.31,4.982) |
21 | Elsinore Temecula | 5 | 4.029(2.404,5.227) | L | 4.029(2.404,5.227) |
22 | Fatigue Wash | 6 | 0.042(0.027,0.061) | G | 0.04(0.026,0.058) |
23 | Futugawa | 5 | ~0(~0,~0) | G | ~0(~0,~0) |
24 | Garlock El Paso Peaks | 6 | 3.338(2.892,3.824) | W | 3.327(2.89,3.784) |
25 | Garlock Twin Lakes | 6 | 3.991(2.806,5.132) | W | 3.983(2.804,5.105) |
26 | Gulang Tianqiaogou | 5 | 3.022(2.518,3.67) | W | 3.019(2.517,3.666) |
27 | Haiyuan Middle | 7 | 9.301(6.504,13.88) | W | 9.301(6.504,13.88) |
28 | Hayward Tysons | 11 | 42.866(38.168,48.161) | W | 42.866(38.168,48.161) |
29 | Helanshan Eastern Piedmont | 5 | ~0(~0,0.001) | W | ~0(~0,0.001) |
30 | Hope | 6 | 19.518(13.297,21.579) | B | 19.672(17.759,21.652) |
31 | Hope Conway | 5 | 15.865(12.658,20.142) | L | 15.939(12.617,20.308) |
32 | Hyden | 5 | 0.062(0.045,0.078) | G | 0.064(0.046,0.08) |
33 | Irpinia | 5 | ~0(~0,0.245) | W | ~0(~0,0.245) |
34 | Javon Canyon | 5 | 5.855(2.885,8.982) | W | 5.855(2.885,8.982) |
35 | Kiri | 5 | 5.931(4.427,7.59) | L | 5.911(4.473,7.475) |
36 | Lachlan | 5 | 3.756(3.034,4.493) | W | 3.756(3.034,4.493) |
37 | Lake Edgar | 5 | 0.023(0.019,0.028) | G | 0.023(0.019,0.028) |
38 | Langshan Piedmont Xibulong East | 5 | 1.929(1.618,2.295) | L | 1.929(1.618,2.295) |
39 | Lenglongling | 5 | 0.006(~0,0.041) | L | 0.006(0.001,0.041) |
40 | Mangatete | 6 | 0.032(0.001,0.189) | W | 0.032(0.001,0.189) |
41 | Nankai Trough | 8 | 13.916(11.782,16.187) | W | 13.916(11.782,16.187) |
42 | New Guinea | 6 | 4.868(4.173,5.945) | W | 4.826(4.157,5.561) |
43 | North Anatolian Cukurcimen | 6 | 1.023(0.619,1.585) | W | 1.023(0.619,1.585) |
44 | North Anatolian Elmacik | 8 | 1.335(0.533,1.945) | G | 1.365(0.922,1.96) |
45 | North Anatolian Gunalan | 6 | 0.139(0.046,0.37) | B | 0.139(0.046,0.368) |
46 | North Anatolian Kavakkoy | 6 | 14.103(11.425,16.896) | B | 14.103(11.425,16.897) |
47 | North Anatolian Lake Ladik | 7 | 21.196(5.798,34.833) | W | 21.196(5.798,34.833) |
48 | North Anatolian Yaylabeli | 5 | 4.885(2.525,7.957) | B | 4.886(2.506,7.987) |
49 | Okaya | 9 | 1.992(0.983,3.319) | W | 1.992(0.983,3.319) |
50 | Paeroa | 7 | 1.225(0.962,1.493) | W | 1.219(0.961,1.471) |
51 | Pasuruan | 5 | 17.776(15.402,20.38) | W | 17.771(15.411,20.365) |
52 | Pihama | 7 | 0.337(~0,0.589) | L | 0.338(~0,0.589) |
53 | Porters Pass East | 6 | 2.14(1.78,2.511) | W | 2.14(1.78,2.511) |
54 | Qilianshan Laohushan | 8 | ~0(~0,~0) | B | ~0(~0,~0) |
55 | Rangipo | 7 | 2.518(0.503,4.55) | G | 2.518(0.503,4.55) |
56 | Reelfoot | 5 | 2.192(1.569,2.851) | L | 2.193(1.57,2.851) |
57 | Rocky Valley | 5 | 0.081(0.051,0.109) | W | 0.081(0.053,0.108) |
58 | Rotoitipakau | 9 | 3.093(2.537,3.73) | W | 3.081(2.532,3.677) |
59 | San Andreas Big Bend | 10 | 40.848(36.147,45.931) | W | 40.848(36.147,45.931) |
60 | San Andreas Burro | 7 | 34.498(30.194,39.242) | W | 34.498(30.194,39.242) |
61 | San Andreas Carrizo | 6 | 59.954(51.174,71.794) | W | 63.604(54.216,73.246) |
62 | San Andreas Coachella | 7 | 24.399(19.926,30.01) | L | 24.399(19.926,30.01) |
63 | San Andreas Mendocino | 5 | 0.14(0.031,0.441) | L | 0.14(0.031,0.44) |
64 | San Andreas Mission Ck | 5 | 46.826(37.066,58.07) | W | 46.879(37.486,58.098) |
65 | San Andreas Pallet Ck | 9 | 45.121(40.419,50.149) | W | 45.121(40.419,50.149) |
66 | San Andreas Pittman | 7 | 38.991(32.317,47.317) | W | 38.994(32.319,47.32) |
67 | San Andreas Thousand Palms | 5 | 40.079(33.627,58.286) | G | 39.026(33.33,44.753) |
68 | San Andreas Vedanta | 12 | 17.033(15.696,18.432) | W | 17.033(15.696,18.432) |
69 | San Andreas Wrightwood | 15 | 70.727(64.942,76.399) | W | 70.727(64.942,76.399) |
70 | San Jacinto HogLake | 21 | 24.749(23.397,26.153) | W | 24.749(23.397,26.153) |
71 | San Jacinto Mystic Lake | 13 | 46.015(43.077,48.948) | G | 46.015(43.077,48.948) |
72 | Serteng Piedmont Wujia | 5 | 0.88(0.736,1.046) | W | 0.879(0.735,1.045) |
73 | Snowden | 5 | 0.388(0.156,0.658) | W | 0.388(0.156,0.658) |
74 | Solitario Canyon | 5 | 0.041(0.033,0.048) | L | 0.041(0.033,0.048) |
75 | Stagecoach Road | 5 | 0.114(0.078,0.155) | L | 0.126(0.091,0.16) |
76 | Sumatra Mentawai | 13 | 58.364(54.815,65.233) | G | 58.101(54.693,61.437) |
77 | Tanna | 9 | 1.903(1.251,2.686) | W | 1.903(1.251,2.686) |
78 | Teton Lakes | 8 | 2.757(2.387,3.173) | L | 2.757(2.387,3.173) |
79 | Vernon | 5 | 2.188(1.338,3.684) | W | 2.188(1.338,3.684) |
80 | Wairarapa South | 6 | 0.029(0.013,0.06) | W | 0.029(0.013,0.06) |
81 | Wairau | 5 | 10.68(6.813,17.663) | L | 10.329(6.609,17.281) |
82 | Waitangi | 7 | 0.21(0.128,0.289) | B | 0.21(0.128,0.289) |
83 | Wasatch Brigham | 6 | 14.691(12.395,17.373) | L | 14.663(12.38,17.302) |
84 | Wasatch Nilphi | 6 | 5.199(4.085,6.607) | W | 5.199(4.085,6.607) |
85 | Wasatch Weber | 5 | 2.816(1.627,3.598) | W | 2.816(1.627,3.598) |
86 | Wharekuri | 5 | 0.137(0.116,0.161) | G | 0.138(0.116,0.162) |
87 | Whirinaki | 8 | 0.643(0.479,0.828) | G | 0.633(0.471,0.823) |
88 | Windy Wash | 7 | 0.005(0.001,0.01) | W | 0.006(0.003,0.01) |
89 | Wulashan Piedmont Heshunzhuang Botou | 7 | 2.261(1.924,2.655) | W | 2.261(1.924,2.655) |
90 | Wulashan Piedmont Jinmiaozi Heshuzhuang | 6 | 1.193(1.006,1.388) | L | 1.193(1.006,1.388) |
91 | Wutai North Piedmont | 5 | 2.46(2.056,2.958) | W | 2.393(2.032,2.77) |
92 | Xorkoli | 9 | 8.037(6.235,9.312) | W | 8.037(6.235,9.312) |
93 | Zemuhe | 8 | 0.007(0.003,0.017) | W | 0.007(0.003,0.017) |
