Fig. 5: Spurious change signals between 1961 and 1990 and 2071 and 2100 in CMIP6.

a CMIP6 multi-model mean difference between the periods 1961β1990 and 2071β2100 using separate extreme thresholds for each period. c CanESM5 extreme frequency in both periods for a selected grid cell with a strong signal in the Arabian Sea. b, d Same as a, c but with the bias correction applied before the threshold calculation. The shown grid cell is marked with an orange rectangle in a. Areas with more than 80% of CMIP6 models agreeing on the sign and differences larger than Β±2% (lightest shading) are stippled.