Fig. 1: Overview of the computational model and study design.
From: Predictive evolutionary modelling for influenza virus by site-based dynamics of mutations
Site-wise fitness dynamics are modeled and projected to the next season (T + 1). Based on the predicted genome-wide fitness landscape of future virus population, an optimal wild-type virus can be selected integrating evolutionary information of both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes. The prediction is validated by genetic mismatch against observed circulating viruses in the Northern Hemisphere retroactively and prospectively for pH1N1 and H3N2. In addition, mouse model is used to evaluate the antibodies elicited by predicted vaccine strain in neutralizing the clinical isolates in 2019/20 season.
