Fig. 2: Posterior estimates of time-homogeneous predictor contributions to RSV diffusion between countries.

The predictors include the number of passengers travelling by air between each pair of countries represented in the data set (air travel, in dark red), population size at the origin and destination location (pop size ori & pop size dest, in blue), geographic distance (geo distance, in light green), absolute differences in latitude (lat diff, in dark orange) and sample sizes at the origin and destination locations (# taxa ori & # taxa dest, in dark green). The Y-axis represents the product of the coefficient (on a log scale) and the inclusion probability for the predictors (coefficient * Inclusion). (A, B: RSVA. C, D: RSVB. The plots on the left and right distinguish between analyses without and with sample size predictors respectively. E and F summarise the estimates for a single GLM-diffusion model applied to the combined RSVA and RSVB data sets at the country level. The grey boxes in the violin plots represent the median and quantile estimates. Violin plots are based on n = 507 (A), n = 535 (B), n = 45002 (C), n = 45002 (D), n = 452 (E) and n = 452 (F) post-burnin samples from the respective MCMC chains. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.