Fig. 3: Relationship between vaccine effectiveness and the vaccinia-binding GMT.

The contour lines, represent the 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% highest density regions of the joint-posterior distribution (i.e., smallest areas that contain x% of the posterior samples) for the different vaccines (indicated by colour). The association between antibody titers and effectiveness (solid black line) is fitted using all of the underlying data (accounting for the interstudy heterogeneity using a hierarchical model structure) (Table S5). The solid black line indicates the best estimate (median of posterior), and shaded region show the 95% credible intervals of the predicted effectiveness at different GMTs.