Fig. 3: Results of 6 scenarios during a 30-year simulation of saline lake industries from 2025 to 2055.

Six scenarios were designed using the resource-based regional industrial economy development optimization model (RRIEDOM) simulation, including S0, which was developed under the original structure and gradually introduced the technologies recommended by RRIEDOM; S1, which was developed with certain constraints on the industrial structure to simulate the empirical pattern; S2, which was developed under the original structure, allowing a 10-year transition to the optimal structure by identifying and eliminating the low-efficiency technologies and gradually deploying the technologies recommended by RRIEDOM; S3, which is similar to S2 but has a transition period of 5 years; S4, which assumes that there is no original structure and develops only under the guidance of RRIEDOM with the interaction of available technologies database; and S5, which is similar to S2 but has a longer transition period of 20 years. Through the simulation of six scenarios, six paths for the development of the Salt Lake Industrial Zone are obtained, and in the optimal development mode (S4 scenario), the whole development path has the least resource consumption, the least environmental impact, and the greatest economic benefits. The indicators are industrial output (a), benefit (b), capital investment (c), carbon emission (d), carbon emission intensity (e), carbon emission intensity without measures (f), electricity consumption (g), water consumption (h), and energy consumption (i). The supplementary results for each scenario are shown in Supplementary Figs. 31–35. Source data are provided as a source data file.