Fig. 2: Projected change in spring predictability barrier of El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
From: Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming
a The change in multi-model-mean anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) map obtained from LIM for central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between future (2000–2099) and present-day (1900–1999) climates. Only the difference (future minus present-day) exceeding 95% confidence level is shown in the figure (see bootstrap test in Methods). b, c Comparison of (b) CP and (c) eastern-Pacific (EP) ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB) strength predicted by linear inverse model (LIM) over present-day (blue bars) and future (red bars). Error bars are calculated as 1.0 standard derivation of 10,000 inter-realizations of a bootstrap method (see bootstrap test in Methods). Models that are opposite to the multi-model mean result are marked in white shading.
