Table 1 Scenario assessment of maize self-sufficiency by 2050

From: Adopting yield-improving practices to meet maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa without cropland expansion

Scenario

Average yield (t ha−1)

Production (million t)

Demand (million t)

SSR

Balance (million t)

Extra land requirement (million ha)

Current situation

2

80

79

1.0

+1

0

Same rates of yield gain

2.7

108

184

0.6

−76

28

Acceleration of yield gain

4.2

168

184

0.9

−16

4

  1. Average maize yield, production, demand, self-sufficiency ratio (SSR), and balance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the current situation (around the year 2020) and for two scenarios of yield improvement between 2020 and 2050: same rate of yield gain as in the last 20 years and acceleration of yield gain to reach the yield gap closure level achieved by farmers adopting improved management practices in our dataset. The SSR was estimated as the ratio between maize production and demand. All scenarios assumed no change in the current maize area in SSA. The extra land requirement to meet maize demand by 2050 is also shown. See “Methods” section and Supplementary Notes 2 for details on calculations.
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