Fig. 3: Projected changes in upwelling intensity in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs).
From: Future changes in coastal upwelling and biological production in eastern boundary upwelling systems
a The secular changes of the upwelling intensity in the California Current Systems (CalCS) derived from daily high-resolution Community Earth System Model simulation (CESM-H). The thin colored line represents the interannual variability of upwelling intensity, while the thick colored line is smoothed by a 10-year 1-order Savitzky-Golay filter55, representing the decadal changes. The dashed colored line denotes the linear trend during 1920–2100 with its slope and standard error shown in the text. The gray dashed line marks the climatological value (1920-1949), with the y-axis on the right-hand side of each panel showing the relative change concerning its climatological value. b–d Same as a but for results in the Canary (CanCS), Humboldt (HCS), and Benguela (BCS) Current Systems. The red, black, and blue lines represent the secular changes of upwelling intensity in the equatorward (-E), central (-C), and poleward (-P) regions in individual EBUS, respectively. e The violin plot of the linear trends of the upwelling intensity in all subregions of EBUS derived from the climate simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The width of the plot at each value represents the density of data points, with wider sections indicating higher density. Within each plot, the central line represents the median value, flanked by the first and third quartiles. Trends from the monthly CESM-H (red star) and individual simulations are depicted as different symbols, with outliers removed from the plot.
