Fig. 7: Changing ice thickness and speed.
From: Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up
a multimodel mean Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness anomalies (relative to 2015–2030 model mean) projected by the CMIP6 models under a high-emission scenario for fall (green) and winter (orange). Envelopes indicate the model spread as determined by one standard deviation, and values indicated in the panel represent the seasonal increase from 2015 to 2100. Time series represent a basin-wide average and have been smoothed using a low-pass filter with a five-year cutoff frequency. The dashed lines represent the linear trend for winter and fall until 2100. b Spaghetti plot of fall sea ice thickness time series for all CMIP6 models. c Same as b but for winter. d Same as a but for sea ice velocity. e Spatial representation of the annual mean sea ice speed from NorESM2-MM, serving as an example. f Linear trend in annual mean sea ice speed from NorESM2-MM. CESM2 and CMCC-ESM2 were excluded from the sea ice speed analysis due to unavailable data. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
