Fig. 8: Impact on ocean dynamics.
From: Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up
a Multimodel mean Arctic Ocean surface current speed (Methods) anomalies (relative to 2015–2030 model mean) projected by the CMIP6 models under a high-emission scenario for fall (green) and winter (orange). Envelopes indicate the model spread as determined by one standard deviation, and values indicated in the panel represent the seasonal increase from 2015 to 2100. Time series represent a basin-wide average and have been smoothed using a low-pass filter with a five-year cutoff frequency. Dashed lines represent the linear trend until 2100 and individual model trends are shown in Supplementary Fig. 1. b Spatial representation of the annual mean ocean surface velocity NorESM2-MM, serving as an example. c Linear trend in annual mean ocean surface velocity for NorESM2-MM. d Same as a but for NorESM2-MM diapycnal diffusivity averaged down to 100 m (Methods), a variable representing vertical mixing. e Same as a but for Ekman pumping (Methods) in the Beaufort Gyre region (marked by black dashed lines in b. f Same as a, but for liquid freshwater content in the Beaufort Gyre region. GFDL-ESM4 was excluded from the ocean surface current speed analysis due to unavailable data. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
