Fig. 3: The maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes on the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault (AZF).
A The estimated distribution of the potential energy release rate and fracture energy along strike before the 1952 M 6.8 earthquake. The top histogram shows the seismicity distribution along the strike between 2009 and 2023. The colored band accounts for uncertainties of the Gc scaling. B The maximum possible earthquake magnitude as a function of hypocenter location estimated by the 3D theory (purple symbols; vertical error bars indicate the uncertainties caused by the fitting of the Gc scaling) and by numerical simulations (blue curve) with the same Gc scaling. The thick red line marks the ruptured region of the 1952 M 6.8 earthquake. C, D Same as (A, B) but in 2023. In B and D the pink areas indicate the high-hazard regions where the maximum possible earthquake magnitudes are close to Mw 7 and the inset in (D) shows the maximum possible earthquake magnitude as a function of time until the year 2250.
