Fig. 1: Schematic diagram of the preseason forecast model.
From: Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure
For each target season during the growing season, historical observations of yield anomalies conditioned on the state of the ENSO in the target season are used to estimate the empirical probability of below-normal yields given the state of ENSO. These probabilities are linearly combined using the probability of each ENSO state occurring during the target season to produce a single probability of below-normal yields given the ENSO forecast. Forecasts are only issued prior to the start of the vegetative season. Country boundaries are delineated using Natural Earth.
