Fig. 5: Scenarios testing the effect of additional limits to finance substitution on phase-out efficiency.

For all panels, total relative efficiency is plotted as a function of the percentage of banks which have phased-out from the fossil fuel sector. Banks exit the sector in a random order (321 banks total). For illustrative purposes, all panels use a finance limit of 100%. a The total relative efficiency when any active bank can provide substitute capital to a deal at risk (“any substitute”), and when only active banks with a relationship to the current deal-at-risk’s syndicate can act as substitute partners (“syndicate substitute”). b The syndicate substitute scenario, but where the number of candidate banks is limited to the top N banks which are co-active with the current deal-at-risk’s syndicate. c The syndicate substitute scenario, but where the number of times a deal can acquire substitute capital is restricted, after which the deal must fail. The model variants shown in a–c are discussed in greater detail in the supplement (Figures S7–S9). All curves correspond to the median value across 100 random simulations. Shaded regions correspond to the inter-quartile range across the 100 simulations.