Fig. 5: Harrell’s C-index of four models for 19 aging-related disease-risk prediction.

Model 1 (light orange), traditional risk factors (self-reported sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, Townsend deprivation index, alcohol intake frequency, and smoking status) + chronological age; Model 2 (orange), traditional risk factors + chronological age + metabolomic aging score; Model 3 (blue), traditional risk factors + chronological age + frailty index; Model 4 (red), traditional risk factors + chronological age + frailty index + metabolomic aging score. Two-sided P values indicating the differences in two Harrell’s C-indexes are calculated using Z-score tests without adjustment for multiple comparisons. Data were presented as Harrell’s C-indexes with 95% confidence intervals estimated in the testing dataset (a random 30% subset for each disease). *P value <0.05; **P value <5E-03; ***P value <5E-04; ns non-significant difference (Exact P values are available in the corresponding Source Data file). The sample size for each disease: type 2 diabetes, 73,047; hyperlipidemia, 63,597; hypertension, 54,906; ischemic heart disease, 72,636; hypertensive heart disease, 75,081; atrial fibrillation and flutter, 73,839; stroke, 74,016; Parkinson’s disease, 74,961; Alzheimer’s disease, 75,099; hearing loss, 74,487; COPD, 73,644; asthma, 66,204; fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver, 74,994; diseases of oral cavity, 71,970; gastro-esophageal reflux disease, 69,456; CKD, 74,178; osteoporosis, 73,524; polyarthritis, 74,577; cataract, 74,667. COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CKD chronic kidney disease. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.