Fig. 5: Prediction risk and required genomic offset for the moso bamboo population under future climate change. | Nature Communications

Fig. 5: Prediction risk and required genomic offset for the moso bamboo population under future climate change.

From: Haplotype-based pangenomes reveal genetic variations and climate adaptations in moso bamboo populations

Fig. 5: Prediction risk and required genomic offset for the moso bamboo population under future climate change.

a Comparison of the mean risk of non-adaptedness (RONA, y-axis) between the SSP126 (red) and SSP585 (blue) emission scenarios from 2061–2080 across 19 bioclimatic variables (BIO1–BIO19, x-axis) and four climate models (ACCESS-CM2, CMCC-ESM2, GISS-E2-1-G, and MIROC6). The error bars represent the mean values plus or minus the standard error. b Mean RONA estimates for the moso bamboo population under the high-emission scenario (SSP585) and the max temperature of warmest month (BIO5) from 2061 to 2080 based on four individual climate models (ACCESS-CM2, CMCC-ESM2, GISS-E2-1-G, and MIROC6). The map colors indicate projected climate changes in BIO5, with darker red indicating more substantial increases in temperature. The circle size represents the RONA values of different populations. c, d Map of the gradient forest (GF)-predicted local genomic offset averaged across four climate models for the distribution of moso bamboo under SSP126 (c) and SSP585 (d) from 2061–2080. The color scale from blue to red indicates increasing genomic offset. e, f RGB map showing local (red), forward (green), and reverse (blue) genomic offsets for SSP126 (e) and SSP585 (f), respectively. Brighter cells (closer to white) have relatively greater genomic offset values, and darker cells (closer to black) have relatively lower values along each axis. The lower panels are the bivariate scattergrams of (e, f) with 1:1 lines.

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