Fig. 3: Observed and projected changes in risk of progression.
From: Immune escape and attenuated severity associated with the SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86/JN.1 lineage
Panels illustrate A the daily proportion of outpatient tests exhibiting S-gene target failure (BA.2.86-derived lineages) among all tested within the primary analytic cohort; B estimates of the observed day-specific adjusted hazard ratio of emergency department (ED) presentation due to any cause (black), as well as projected estimates of the day-specific adjusted hazard ratio of ED presentation due to any cause resulting only from changes in lineage composition among outpatient-diagnosed cases (defined as \({\widehat{{{{\rm{aHR}}}}}}_{t}\) in the Methods; red); C for the outcome of hospital admission due to any cause, corresponding estimates of the observed day-specific hazard ratios and projected adjusted hazard ratios based only on changes in lineage composition (black and red, respectively); D for the outcome of ED presentations associated with acute respiratory infection (ARI) diagnoses, corresponding estimates of the observed day-specific hazard ratios and projected adjusted hazard ratios based only on changes in lineage composition (black and red, respectively); and E for the outcome of hospital admissions associated with acute respiratory infection (ARI) diagnoses, corresponding estimates of the observed day-specific hazard ratios and projected adjusted hazard ratios based only on changes in lineage composition (black and red, respectively). Analyses include data from 46,067 eligible individuals throughout the study period. For all panels (A–E), points indicate maximum likelihood estimates, with surrounding lines delineating 95% confidence intervals; we generated estimates via Cox proportional hazards models. Source data to replicate the figure are provided as a Source Data file (fig3_source.xlsx).
