Table 1 The 9 original CMPs

Announced Pledges

An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China¹²

International Energy Agency

Sets out a pathway to carbon neutrality in China’s energy sector in which emissions of CO₂ reach a peak before 2030 and fall to net zero in 2060, in line with China’s stated goals.

2060

Below 2 °C

China Renewable Energy Outlook 2019⁶⁸

Research Institute of Academy of Macroeconomic Research/NDRC China National Renewable Energy Center

Shows a pathway for China to achieve the ambitious vision an ecological civilization and the role China could take in the fulfillment of the Paris Agreement.

2050

Carbon Neutrality

Research Report on China’s Carbon Neutrality by 2060¹⁴

Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization

Outlines a pathway to achieve carbon neutrality for all sectors of society, including the energy system.

2060

Carbon Neutral Scenario 2

China Energy Transformation Outlook 2022¹³

Energy Research Institute Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research

Provides a roadmap for China to achieve the ambitious vision for an ecological civilization and the pathway China could take towards carbon neutrality.

2060

NET-led

Incorporating health co-benefits into technology pathways to achieve China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal: a modeling study⁶⁹

Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University (lead)

This CMP explores the maximum usage of negative emission technologies under constraints of resource availability and technology costs, with the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060.

2060

PEAK30

Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework⁴¹

Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University

Assumes China’s CO₂ emissions peak at 2030, and simulates numerous possible sectoral decarbonization pathways under different cumulative carbon budgets.

2050

RE-led

Incorporating health co-benefits into technology pathways to achieve China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal: a modeling study⁶⁹

Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University (lead)

This CMP assumes that negative emission technologies are replaced by renewable and low carbon energies as much as possible, with the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060.

2060

Updated NDC to Carbon Neutrality

Synthesis Report 2022 on China’s Carbon Neutrality: Electrification in China’s Carbon Neutrality Pathways¹⁰, and Synthesis Report 2020 on China’s Carbon Neutrality¹¹

Energy Foundation China

Explores the implications of reaching net CO₂ emissions peak before 2030 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2060.

2060

1.5 °C

China’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategies and Pathways: Comprehensive Report⁹

Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development of Tsinghua University (lead)

Based on the goals of controlling global warming to within 1.5 °C and realizing carbon neutrality, this CMP demonstrates the possibilities and pathway options for the realization of net-zero emissions of CO₂ and deep reductions of other greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

2050