Fig. 2: Excessive carbon claims and carbon debt per capita.

The figure shows the excessive carbon claims per capita during 2023–2070 (y-axis) and carbon debt per capita during 1990–2022 (x-axis) for countries of different income levels (colour), based on average populations during the analysed periods. The left panel a is an expansion of the right panel (b). Countries in the upper right quadrant have a positive carbon debt (i.e. higher emissions during the period than the cumulative per-capita allocation of the global cumulative emissions over the same period) and positive excessive carbon claims (i.e. their planned emissions exceed the cumulative per-capita allocation of the remaining carbon budget 2023–2070). A similar figure for country-level excessive carbon claims and carbon debts is provided in Supplementary Fig. 1 and equivalent figures for a temperature target of 2 °C at 83% probability are provided in Supplementary Figs. 2 (per capita) and 3 (country-level).