Fig. 2: D1 and D15 BA.1 titers in SARS-CoV-2 naïve and non-naïve participants, and in non-cases and COVID-19 cases.

a, b Scatterplots of D1 and D15 log10 BA.1 titers in a naïve participants (N = 629; 181 cases and 448 non-cases) and b non-naïve participants (N = 356; 32 cases and 324 non-cases). Titers are in units AU/ml. The short horizontal red line represents the mean of log10 nAb-ID50 values that are <LLOQ at Day 15. The diagonal red line represents the fitted linear regression line between Day 1 and Day 15 log10 nAb-ID50 values that are above LLOQ. LLOQ, a lower limit of quantification. The gray area around the diagonal red line indicates the 95% confidence interval of the fitted line. Red dots identify COVID-19 cases; yellow dots identify naïve non-cases; blue dots identify non-naïve non-cases. c, d Violin box plots of c D1 and d D15 BA.1 ID50 titers, shown by non-cases (red dots) and COVID-19 cases (turquoise dots) (stratified by booster-proximal cases, booster-distal cases, and proximal + distal cases). In (c), D1 titers are shown from N = 448 naïve and 324 non-naïve non-cases, N = 122 naïve and 22 non-naïve booster-proximal cases, N = 59 naïve and 10 non-naïve booster-distal cases, N = 181 naïve and 32 non-naïve proximal+distal cases; in (d), D15 titers are shown from N = 448 naïve and 324 non-naïve non-cases, N = 122 naïve and 22 non-naïve booster-proximal cases, N = 59 naïve and 10 non-naïve booster-distal cases, N = 181 naïve and 32 non-naïve proximal+distal cases. Violin plots contain interior box plots with upper and lower horizontal edges at the 25th and 75th percentiles of antibody level and middle line at the 50th percentile, and vertical bars the distance from the 25th (or 75th) percentile of antibody level and the minimum (or maximum) antibody level within the 25th (or 75th) percentile of antibody level minus (or plus) 1.5 times the interquartile range. Each side shows a rotated probability density (estimated by a kernel density estimator with a default Gaussian kernel) of the data. Non-cases: No evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection at 7 days post-D15 through to 188 days post-D15. Booster-proximal cases: COVID-19 endpoint between 7 and 91 days post-D15 visit; booster-distal cases: COVID-19 endpoint between 92 and 188 days post-D15 visit; cases (proximal + distal): COVID-19 endpoint between 7 and 188 days post-D15 visit. Rate is the percentage of participants with positive responses, with positive responses defined as titer above the limit of detection (LoD), 40 AU/ml. Gray triangles identify non-responders/undetectable. The upper dashed horizontal line in each plot shows the antigen-specific upper limit of quantification (ULoQ) and the lower dashed horizontal line in each plot shows the LoD. nAb-ID50, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody titer. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.