Fig. 1: Changes of precipitation and daily-maximum surface air temperature (TX) annual cycles over tropical land under global warming.

a, b Future changes (bars), current (solid line), and future climatology (dashed line) of the annual cycle of precipitation with annual mean changes removed over northern tropical land (NTL) (0°–25°N, a) and southern tropical land (STL) (0°–25°S, b). c Spatial distribution of the changes in precipitation during local spring (April–May–June (AMJ) in the northern hemisphere and September–October–November (SON) in the southern hemisphere) with annual mean changes removed. d–f As in a–c, but for TX. The spatial correlation coefficient between c and f is displayed in the upper right of f. Error bars denote the 25th and 75th of changes among the multimodel ensembles. Diagonal lines in the colored bars of a, b, d, e indicate significance at the 95% confidence level based on a two-sided Student’s t test. Stippling in c, f indicates at least 70% of the models agree on the sign of changes. g, h Inter-model relationship between relative spring changes (annual mean changes subtracted) of precipitation and TX over the NTL (g) and the STL (h). A linear fit (solid black line) is displayed together with the correlation coefficient R and the corresponding P value.