Fig. 1: Initial states predict final states.
a 275 samples obtained from rain pools were cryopreserved, revived, and inoculated into a standardised growth medium. Community composition was assessed using amplicon sequencing at the start (before cryopreservation) and end of the experiment (revived communities). b Principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) of all communities with colours representing their position in ordination space at the start of the experiment. The left panel shows the starting communities and the right panel shows the final communities. The third PCoA component is shown in Supplementary Fig. 1. c Composition of final communities in the high-dimensional space was predicted as a rigid-body transformation of starting communities. The transformation was obtained by applying a singular value decomposition of the cross-covariance matrix of the starting communities and one replicate of the final communities (see “Methods”). The figure shows a linear relationship between the first SVD component of transformed starting communities (prediction) and the final communities not used to find the transformation (experiments) (second SVD component in Supplementary Fig. 2). The Pearson R2 and two-sided t-statistic p values are independently indicated for each final replicate, with shadowed regions indicating 95% CI. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
