Fig. 4: Thermal suitability, S(T), for transmission of malaria by Anopheles stephensi predicted for constant and diurnally fluctuating temperature conditions.
Colors denote daily temperature range (DTR) treatment: 0 °C (gray), 9 °C (green), and 12 °C (purple). Line type and color hue denotes if model was parameterized with thermal performance curves (TPCs) fit to empirical data (solid lines, darkest hues) or TPCs generated by rate summation (RS) (dashed, medium hues = RS on three adult traits, dotted, lightest hues = RS on all traits). A, E Model versions parameterized with thermal performance curves (TPCs) fit to empirical data collected from constant temperature (T) conditions (model 1, constant T) and fluctuating conditions (model 2, empirical fluctuating T). B, F Model versions parameterized with TPCs fit to empirical data collected from fluctuating conditions (model 2, empirical fluctuating T) and TPCs predicted by rate summation performed on trait TPCs for focal traits only (model 3, trait-level RS - 3 traits). C,G) Model versions comparing rate summation performed on the TPCs for traits (model 4, trait-level RS - all traits) and on the TPC for suitability itself (model 5, S(T)-level RS). D,H) TPCs fit to empirical data collected from constant temperature (T) conditions (model 1, constant T) and predicted by rate summation on the TPCs for traits (model 4, trait-level RS - all traits). Numbers in the legends below refer to model numbers, see “Methods” for model details. A–D TPCs display posterior distribution medians, with 95% credible intervals as shaded areas (n = 7500 MCMC iterations). E–H Key temperature values from the TPCs: thermal optimum (Topt), thermal minimum (Tmin), and thermal maximum (Tmax). Points display posterior distribution medians and error bars display 95% credible intervals (n = 7500 MCMC iterations).
