Fig. 2: Future changes in different archetypes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation and the associated rainfall.

Hovmöller diagrams of the mean equatorial (10°S–10°N) 20–70-day rainfall anomaly (shading, units: mm day⁻¹) and the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomaly (contour, interval: 5 W m⁻¹) averaged over all the standing MJO events in the (a) historical (1979–2014) and b far-future (2064–2099) SSP5–8.5 scenarios based on the multi-model ensemble mean of the 12 good models (MME12). c The difference between the two scenarios, with the shading showing the values with the sign agreed by ≥ 66% of the models. Dashed contours denote negative values, while solid ones denote positive values. The bottom right shows the tropical mean total 20–70-day rainfall accumulation associated with the MJO events. d–l Similar to panels a–c, but for d–f, jumping, g–i, slow, j–l, and fast events. The phase speed, with the uncertainty showing inter-model spread (±1 S.D.), is estimated using the regression approach (see Methods).