Table 4 Average NMR, total neonatal deaths and total DALYs due to ‘Neonatal Disorders’ during the intervention period (2023–2030) by scenario

Comparator scenario:

Status Quo (SQ)

16.9 (16.7, 17.1)

Ref.

99,902 (98,661, 101,142)

Ref.

6,981,837 (6,901,833,7,061,841)

Ref.

Scenarios relating to antenatal services:

Increased routine ANC coverage (AN coverage)

15.9 (15.8, 16.1)

–1.0 (–1.3, –0.7)

–5.8%

94,135 (93,136, 95,134)

–5766 (–7548, -3985)

–5.8%

6,556,867 (6,485,449, 6,628,285)

–424,940 (–548,281, –301,695)

–6.1%

Increased coverage and quality of antenatal services (AN coverage and qual.)

15.0 (14.8, 15.2)

–1.9 (–2.2, –1.6)

–11.2%

88,700 (87,273, 90,128)

–11,201 (–12,903, –9500)

–11.2%

6,181,879 (6,090,215, 6,273,543)

–799,958 (–908,339, –691,578)

–11.5%

Maximum availability of antenatal services (AN max.)

15.0 (14.8, 15.2)

–1.9 (–2.2, –1.6)

–11.3%

88,663 (87,564, 89,761)

–11,239 (–13,096, –9382)

–11.3%

6,159,507 (6,084,861, 6,234,153)

–822,330 (–946,250, –698,409)

–11.8%

No antenatal services (AN min.)

19.4 (19.2, 19.6)

2.5 (2.3, 2.8)

14.9%

114,697 (113,647, 115,748)

14,796 (13,348, 16,243)

14.8%

8,008,887 (7,940,545, 8,077,227)

1,027,050 (933,805, 1,120,295)

14.7%

Scenarios relating to intrapartum services:

Increased availability of intrapartum BEmONC interventions (IP BEmONC)

13.1 (13.0, 13.2)

–3.8 (–4.0, –3.6)

–22.4%

77,580 (76,280426, 78,357)

–22,321(–23,476, –20,187)

–22.3%

5,400,914 (5,354,350, 5,447,479)

–1,580,923 (–1,661,139, –1,500,707)

–22.6%

Increased availability of intrapartum CEmONC interventions (IP CEmONC)

13.1 (13.0, 13.3)

–3.8 (–4.0, –3.5)

–22.2%

77,976 (76,960, 78,992)

–21,926 (–23,664, –20,187)

–21.9%

5,452,852 (5,382,481, 5,523,223)

–1,528,985 (–1,640,003, –1,417,967)

–21.9%

Maximum availability of intrapartum services

(IP max.)

12.0 (11.8, 12.2)

–4.9(–5.1, –4.6)

–28.8%

71,398 (70,135, 72,661)

–28,503 (–29,961, –27,046)

–28.5%

4,992,053 (4,907,342, 5,076,764)

–1,989,783 (–2,087,019, –1,892,589)

–28.5%

No intrapartum services (IP min.)

22.0 (21.7, 22.3)

5.1 (4.9, 5.4)

30.3%

130,193 (128,578, 131,809)

30,292 (28,832, 31,751)

30.3%

9,096,867 (8,985,226, 9,208,508)

2,115,030 (2,005,525, 2,224,535)

30.1%

Scenarios relating to postnatal services:

Increased PNC coverage (PN coverage)

16.9 (16.7, 17.1)

–0.1(–0.2, 0.4)

N/A

100,765 (99,521, 102,009)

–864 (–719, 2447)

N/A

7,026,456 (6,948,270, 7,104,642)

44,619 (–59,374, 148,612)

N/A

Increased coverage and quality of postnatal services (PN coverage and qual.)

15.7 (15.4, 15.9)

–1.2 (–1.5, –0.9)

–7.1%

92,827 (91,718, 93,395)

–7075 (–8983, –5167)

–7.1%

6,470,768 (6,387,697, 6,553,840)

–511,069 (–645,141, –442,389)

–7.3%

Maximum availability of postnatal services (PN max.)

15.3 (15.1, 15.3)

–1.6 (–1.9, –1.4)

–9.7%

90,338 (89,491, 91,184)

–9564 (–10,919, –8209)

–9.6%

6,311,920 (6,254,857, 6,368,984)

–669,917 (–760,532, –579,301)

–9.6%

No postnatal services (PN min.)

17.7 (17.5, 18.0)

0.9 (0.6, 1.1)

5.1%

104,903 (103,710, 106,096)

5002 (3365, 6638)

5.0%

7,318,664 (7,240,983, 7,396,345)

336,824 (221,265, 442,389)

4.8%

Scenarios relating to all services:

Increased coverage and antenatal, postnatal services and improved availability of BEmONC interventions (All services coverage)

12.4 (12.2, 12.5)

–4.5 (–4.8, –4.3)

–26.9%

73,128 (72,237, 74,020)

–26,773 (–28,050, –25,496)

–26.8%

5,079,849 (5,021,468, 5,138,229)

–1,901,989 (–1,990,484, –1,813,493)

27.2%

Increased coverage and quality of antenatal, postnatal services, and improved availability of CEmONC interventions (All services coverage and qual.)

10.9 (10.8, 11.1)

–6.0 (–6.3, –5.7)

–35.4%

64,649 (63,773, 65,525)

–35,253 (–37,062, –33,444)

–35.3%

4,475,043 (4,416,512, 4,533,574)

–2,506,794 (–2,625,589, –2,388,000)

–35.9%

Maximum availability of antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal services (All services max.)

9.4 (9.3, 9.5)

–7.5 (–7.6, –7.3)

–44.2%

55,908 (55,251, 56,564)

–43,994 (–45,132, –42,856)

–44.0%

3,882,514 (3,839,590, 3,925,438)

–3,099,323 (–3,174,268, –3,024,379)

–44.4%

No availability of antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal services (All services min.)

26.5 (26.3, 26.7)

9.6 (9.3, 9.9)

57.0%

156,699 (155,346, 158,052)

56,798 (54,956, 58,639)

56.9%

10,964,980 (10,868,610, 11,061,350)

3,983,143 (3,853,275, 4,113,011)

57.1%