Fig. 4: Participation in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact (PACTO) increases area restored relative to baseline restorable area.

This figure shows the estimated marginal effects based on an interaction term between treatment and the post period indicator from Eq. (1). The outcome is net hectares of forest recovered divided by hectares of initial non-forested area. The hollow dot in a denotes the simple binary treatment effect from Supplementary Table 1, column (3), which is an ordinary least squares estimation with cell fixed effects, time, temperature and precipitation controls (N = 79,285; treated: 42,056; control: 37,229). The estimates indicated by solid dots in b are from the same table, column (6), also using the cell fixed effect specification of Eq. (1) (N = 79,285). The treatment variable in this case is continuous, and the dots indicate the treatment effect evaluated at 25, 50, 75, and 100% of the cell under restoration. The average treatment intensity for cells is 35%. Navy lines are 95% confidence intervals. Standard errors are clustered at the municipality level. Statistical significance is based on two-sided t-tests for which p-values are reported in Supplementary Table 1.