Fig. 3: Projections of global surface temperature (GST) increase in baseline SSPs and sensitivity scenarios with varied global military spending.

a Projected changes in GST relative to the 1850–1900 mean under the SSP1-1.9 baseline (blue line), as well as sensitivity scenarios with varying global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio): −2% (green line), +5% (orange line), and +12% (red line) compared to baseline. b Similar projections for SSP1-2.6 baseline (blue) and sensitivity scenarios with varying global MILEX ratios: −2% (green line), +12% (orange line), and +24% (red line) compared to baseline. The shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals for each scenario.