Table 3 Predicted effects of introduction of lenacapavir + cabotegravir over 10 years

Of PWH on ART, percentage who are on lenacapavir+cabotegravir

Age 15+

Ages 15−24

Women age 15+

Men age 15+

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15% (5% − 37%) 17% (17% - 18%)

20% (7% - 40%) 21% (20% - 22%)

14% (5% - 35%) 17% (16% - 17%)

15% (5% - 36%) 17% (17% - 18%)

Of PWH on lenacapavir+cabotegravir, percentage who started (a) when on ART with measured viral non-suppression (b) when off ART (c) when already virally suppressed

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24% (7% − 55%) 27% (26% - 28%)

40% (14% − 75%) 42% (40% - 43%)

31% (0% - 75%) 32% (31% - 34%)

Of PWH on lenacapavir + cabotegravir, percentage with viral load <1000 copies/mL

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96% (90% − 99%) 95% (95% - 96%)

Of PWH who have ever taken lenacapavir + cabotegravir:

percentage currently still on lenacapavir + cabotegravir

percentage virologically failed lenacapavir + cabotegravir

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88% (43% - 98%) 81% (79% - 82%)

7% (1% - 29%) 10% (9% - 10%)

Percentage of PWH with a capsid inhibitor/integrase inhibitor drug resistance mutation

0.0% (0.0% - 0.0%) 0.0% (0.0% -0.0%)

0.9% (0.2% - 3.0%) 1.1% (1.1% - 1.2%)

0.2% (0.0% − 1.4%) 0.4% (0.4% - 0.4%)

0.9% (0.2% − 3.0%) 1.1% (1.1% - 1.2%)

Of PWH on ART, percentage with viral load <1000 copies/mL

97% (92% - 98%) 96% (96% - 96%)

98% (94% - 99%) 97% (97% - 97%)

Of people with diagnosed HIV, percentage with viral load >1000 copies/mL

Difference

8.3% (4.6% - 15.7%)

9.0% (8.8% - 9.2%)

6.9% (3.9% - 13.0%)

7.5% (7.4% - 7.7%)

-1.3% (-3.9% - +0.5%)

-1.5% (-1.4% - -1.6%)

Of all PWH, percentage with viral load <1000 copies/mL

86% (77% − 92%) 85% (85% - 86%)

87% (80% − 93%) 87% (87% - 87%)

Prevalence of HIV viral load >1000 copies/mL amongst all adults

Relative prevalence

1.3% (0.4% - 4.0%) 1.7% (1.6% - 1.8%)

1.2% (0.4% - 3.5%) 1.5% (1.4% - 1.6%)

0.90 (0.74 – 1.10)

0.90 (0.89 – 0.91)

Number of HIV related deaths per year ^{^}

Deaths averted

Percent reduction

1030 (340 – 2620)

1210 (1160 – 1250)

830 (290 – 2010)

970 (9,300 – 1010)

180 (0 – 680) 240 (230 – 250)

19% (0% − 35%) 18% (18% - 19%)

HIV incidence in women (age 15-49) (per 100 person years)

Relative rate

HIV incidence in men (age 15-49) (per 100 person years)

Relative rate

0.28 (0.06 – 1.28) 0.41 (0.39 – 0.44)

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0.18 (0.04 – 0.66)

0.25 (0.23 – 0.26)

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0.27 (0.05–1.16) 0.39 (0.37 – 0.41)

0.95 (0.67 – 1.30)

0.97 (0.95 – 0.98)

0.17 (0.03 – 0.59)

0.23 (0.22 – 0.24)

0.94 (0.60 – 1.45)

0.97 (0.95 – 0.98)

Percentage of children of women with HIV for which the child is infected at birth or through breastfeeding ^

Number of newly infected children per year ^

Relative risk

5.1% (2.1% − 10.1%)

5.5% (5.3% - 5.6%)

370 (65 – 1940)

600 (560 – 640)

4.0% (1.7% − 8.3%)

4.4% (4.3% - 4.6%)

300 (50 – 1660)

480 (450 – 520)

0.82 (0.54 – 1.20)

0.84 (0.83 – 0.86)