Fig. 4: Prospectively life-cycle CO₂ emission related to lithium-ion battery (LIB) under the nine selected scenarios.

a LIB life-cycle CO₂ emissions under China’s carbon neutrality electricity mix (CN60 electricity mix) and baseline electricity mix (BAU electricity mix) in 2060. b Battery recycling process CO₂ emissions under CN60 electricity mix. c CO₂ emissions of vehicle/cathode-specific battery recycling process under CN60 electricity mix. a The bars illustrate the specific material inputs involved in the battery manufacturing process, including steel, aluminum, copper wire, cathode materials, graphite, polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆), electrolyte, and polypropylene. In the circular chart of (a), recycling emissions are shown on the right side of the origin to represent an increase in emissions resulting from the recycling process, indicating their contribution to the lifecycle total. Conversely, recycling emissions are shown on the left side of the origin to represent a reduction in emissions, highlighting the avoided emissions that offset those from battery manufacturing, transportation, and collection. BAU - CN60 value displayed in the secondary axis denotes the difference in cumulative life-cycle carbon emissions between BAU electricity mix and CN60 electricity mix. b The output is the annual avoided carbon emissions from battery recycling. RS refers to the baseline scenario in which the cathode chemistry, battery lifespan, recycling technology, and critical material rate develop according to current trends. CC-LFP, CC-NMC and CC-NCA represent the LFP-dominated, NMC-dominated, and NCA-dominated cathode evolution scenarios, respectively. SL-HIGH is the high battery service life scenario. Under RP-PYR and RP-DIR scenarios, the batteries are adopted pyrometallurgical recycling and direct cathode recycling technology, respectively. MRR-PRO refers to the progressive critical material recycling rate. And the OPT scenario denotes the optimal battery technology and recycling technology transition. Car BEV compact battery electric car, Car PHEV compact plug-in hybrid electric car, Large Car BEV battery electric large car and sport utility vehicle, Large Car PHEV plug-in hybrid electric large car and sport utility vehicle, Mini Car BEV mini-sized battery electric car, Mini Car PHEV mini-sized plug-in hybrid electric car, NCA nickel cobalt aluminum, LFP lithium iron phosphate, NMC nickel manganese cobalt.