Fig. 10: Relative contribution of several components to the occurrence of heat waves.

a Heat wave number, b heat wave days, c duration in days, and d frequency of exceeding a 45 °C threshold in years for the grid-point closest to Phoenix, Arizona. The components are: the expected value or climatology (CTL), Atlantic-only 2023 (ATL23) sea surface temperature (SST) sensitivity, Pacific-only 2023 SST sensitivity (PAC23), and the Pacific-Atlantic Synergy, scaled by the total contribution corresponding to the GBL23 experiment (2023 SST sensitivity). The numeric values in the center are the climatology (top) and 2023 SST sensitivity experiment (bottom). The percentage values in each of the slices indicate the increase/decrease relative to climatology (CTL, or 100%). These values are from the atmospheric general circulation model AGCM experiments. See Methods.