Fig. 3: Box Plots of observed, expected outcome, and expected counterfactual values of the incidence of “Injury, poisoning and certain other consequences of external causes (S00-T98)”, 2018–2023.

Observed: observed crude incidence proportions, i.e., cases of individuals with one or more new diagnoses defined by the indicator variable divided by the total number of refugee centre inhabitants (occupancy) and multiplied by 100. Outcome: estimated outcome values based on negative binomial regression models, adjusted for age, sex, centre, and secular trends. Cfactual: estimated counterfactual values based on the negative binomial regression models, adjusted for age, sex, centre and secular trends while setting covid = 0. Cons.ext.causes: Injury, poisoning and certain other consequences of external causes. Cum. Incidence: Cumulative Incidence, occup.: occupancy. Y-axis: cumulative incidence in %. Boxes: interquartile range (IQR; the 25th and 75th percentiles). Whiskers: The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 × IQR from the hinge. The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 × IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are plotted individually by black dots. Horizontal black bar in boxes: Median. N = 836 centre-months. Source data are provided in the “source_data.xlsx” file.