Fig. 4: Modeling of timing of dissemination in single and double-fed WT and wAlbB Wolbachia mosquitoes.

Modeling of timing of dissemination using empirical data shown in Fig. 3 for a single-fed WT mosquitoes (wildtype mosquitoes without Wolbachia), b double-fed WT mosquitoes, c single-fed wAlbB mosquitoes, and d double-fed wAlbB mosquitoes. Experimental data are shown as black dots, with black lines indicating the raw uncertainty in the proportions disseminated. Dark blue or red lines show different draws from the posterior distribution of parameters and indicate the model’s uncertainty. Bright blue and red lines represent the model’s maximum a posteriori prediction. Black lines with arrows mark the timing of 50% dissemination (EIP₅₀) with 95% credible intervals marked by flanking gray lines with arrows. For (c) 50% dissemination = 8.38 days post-infection (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.72–9.01. For (d) 50% dissemination = 6.86 days post-infection (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.03–7.62. Blue = single-fed, red = double-fed. SF = single-fed, DF = double-fed. Data used to model the dissemination time course was collected over 2 replicates.