Fig. 3: The potential impact of BPSV mass-vaccination campaigns on disease burden during a future SARS-X pandemic.

Dynamical modelling of BPSV mass-vaccination of priority groups (those aged 60+) following pathogen detection during a hypothetical SARS-X pandemic. A Illustrative figure of simulated scenarios and the timing of key events. B Time-varying reproduction number (Rt) profiles for the different non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) scenarios imposed in response to the epidemic that are considered for the analyses presented here. These Scenarios differ by assumed stringency (either no measures, a minimal mandate reducing transmission by 25% or stringent measures reducing Rt to 0.9), duration (either until the BPSV campaign is completed or the disease-specific vaccination campaign is completed) and the nature by which these NPIs are relaxed (either instantaneous or gradual). C BPSV impact on disease burden for each NPI scenario, assuming the VSV is available 100 days (top-panel) or 250 days (bottom-panel) following detection, for an R0 of 2.5. Uncoloured crosses indicate scenarios without BPSV (VSV only); points indicate scenarios where BPSV is available, coloured according to NPI scenario. Inset panels show deaths averted by the BPSV, coloured by NPI scenario. D BPSV impact on the need for NPIs for the same disease burden. For each NPI Scenario, the Pareto frontier was constructed for the VSV-only scenario, and used to calculate how many fewer NPI days can be imposed in the BPSV scenario whilst still limiting disease burden to the level observed in the corresponding VSV-only scenario.